Beware of March...economy.

A really fantastic article is up on one of my favorite blogger sites. Jesse's Cafe Americain always has great economic articles. Sometime a bit technical, but well worth the read.

Pictures of a Market Crash: Beware the Ides of March, And What Follows After
There are a fair number of private and public forecasters with whom I speak that anticipate a significant market decline in March. As you know I tend to agree, but with the important caveat that we are in a very different monetary landscape than the last time the Fed engaged in quantitative easing, the early 1930's. The biggest difference is the lack of 'external standards.'

He paints a not so pretty picture for the very near future.

The overseas (European situation) is about to get really ugly.

LEAP/E2020 is of the view that the effect of States’ spending trillions to « counteract the crisis » will have fizzled out. These vast sums had the effect of slowing down the development of the systemic global crisis for several months but, as anticipated in previous GEAB reports, this strategy will only have ultimately served to clearly drag States into the crisis caused by the financial institutions.

Therefore our team anticipates, in this 42nd issue of the GEAB, a sudden intensification of the crisis in the second half of 2010, caused by a double effect of a catching up of events which were temporarily « frozen » in the second half of 2009 and the impossibility of maintaining the palliative remedies of past years.

Weekly news sum up.

I was thinking perhaps a sum up of events for the week that caught my eye. Unfortunately there are many and none of them positive.

-So far tonight 2 banks and 2 Credit Unions were shut down.

-US GDP was revised up, but the move was all due to inventory reshuffling..sales actually declined.

A closer look at the economy’s 5.9% growth rate in Q4 reveals that two temporary factors, inventories and stimulus, accounted for at least 80% — perhaps over 100% — of that growth.

-Unemployment continued to rise, though the not seasonally adjusted weekly declined...long term is still nasty.
-New and prior owned home sales declined again.

Urban meltdown as Detroit Mayor wants to move residents to consolidate the population and shut down sections of the city.

From Business Insider: The Radar: 10 Brewing Stories You Must Start Paying Attention To

1.Failed Turkey Coup Re-Ignites Doubts Over European Union Membership
2.Falklands Flare Up Has UK And Argentina Back In Conflict
3.Austrian Banks (in trouble)
4.A New War In Kurdistan?
5.John McCain's primary campaign for the soul of the Republican party.
6.China Continues To Tighten As World's Dominant Economic Power Dictates Play
7.Shipping Set To Return To High Amounts Due To Belief In Sustained Global Rebound
8.Health Care Takes Center Stage Again As Obama Continues To Draw Down On Waning Political Capital
9.British Pound Under Threat As New Doubts Emerge Over Country's Ability To Counter Debt
10.Greece Continues To Teeter On The Brink As Bailout Fails To Materialize
Bonus: The Bloom Box (This....if true...will end US dependence on foreign energy...and probably topple a few energy companies).

Winter walk....signs of food #1

I was out on a little walk today, and thought OK let's do a little prepper thinking. What if....I needed to find food, start a fire etc. It's winter time and things are looking a bit bleak where I am hiking, what food is available quickly? I immediately went to my favorite place, the fallen tree.
With my trusty, always on me leatherman, I popped open the bark to find.


Food! Termites...though a bit intensive to collect, they are nutritious with high levels of protein and fat (badly needed in cold weather).

I decided to think a bit bigger. Looking on the ground I was surrounded with pine cones...ooo pine nuts!



Unfortunately these pine nuts had been on the ground a bit too long and had turned to mush. So I moved on and spotted a good sign.



The game trail was well used with some fresh sign from the night before by a raccoon.




The great thing about racoons, especially in Florida, is they are excellent scavangers. Find where a racoon has gone to eat and you can find some good eats (crabs, mussels, etc.). Raccoons themselves are also very good eating though they run a risk of carrying diseases (true of most wild animals).

Then I found the big sign..




Wild boar tracks which lead to a large wallow area. This gave me the indication of a good size group of wild pigs in the area. Setting up a dead fall or careful hunting position could produce a large amount of food in short order. So next time you are out on a walk...look around and see what food is available. Don't worry salad fans, I'll get to plants next.....

Seed starting time is coming.

Hey Floridians!

It's getting close to that time again to start those seeds (if the south Floridians haven't started already).The Mothership (American Preppers) is running a free seed giveaway. The seeds are non-hybrids/non-GMO and the company running the giveaway, Hometown Seeds has a great selection.

7.0 Earthquake strikes Haiti

Though an initial tsunami watch was issued....it has since been cancelled.

Since I am at the coast this issue has crossed my mind a few times.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2010rja6.php#details
Magnitude
7.0
Date-Time
Tuesday, January 12, 2010 at 21:53:09 UTC
Tuesday, January 12, 2010 at 04:53:09 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
18.451°N, 72.445°W
Depth
10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region
HAITI REGION
Distances
15 km (10 miles) SW of PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti
140 km (90 miles) E of Les Cayes, Haiti
145 km (90 miles) WNW of Barahona, Dominican Republic
1140 km (710 miles) SE of Miami, Florida
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 8.3 km (5.2 miles); depth fixed by location program
Parameters
NST=103, Nph=103, Dmin=365.7 km, Rmss=1.14 sec, Gp= 94°,
M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=7
Source
USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
us2010rja6

To: U.S. and Canadian Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico coastal regions
From: NOAA/NWS/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center
Subject: Tsunami Information Statement #1 issued 01/12/2010 at 6:03PM AST

A strong earthquake has occurred, but a tsunami IS NOT expected along the coasts of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico states, and Eastern Canadian provinces. NO tsunami warning, watch or advisory is in effect for these areas.

Based on the earthquake location, magnitude, and historic tsunami records, a damaging tsunami IS NOT expected along the Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, U.S. Atlantic, Eastern Canadian and Gulf of Mexico coasts. Earthquakes of this size can generate destructive tsunamis along the coast near the epicenter. Authorities in the epicentral region should be aware of this possibility and take appropriate action.

At 5:53 PM Atlantic Standard Time on January 12, an earthquake with preliminary magnitude 7.3 occurred in the Haiti region . (Refer to the United States Geological Survey for official earthquake parameters.)

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Ewa Beach, Hawaii will issue messages for areas in the Caribbean outside Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

This will be the only statement issued for this event by the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center unless conditions warrant. See the WCATWC web site for basic tsunami information, safety rules, and a tsunami travel time map and table. (NOTE: Travel time maps and tables indicate forecasted times only, not that a wave was generated.)

Unemployment numbers December...Update

Update at the bottom


www.medfinity.com

Many, incuding myself were hoping for an improvement to the employment numbers...unfortunately bad news. The economy seems on life support.


Size of Labor force -661,000 vs -272,000 (revised down) last month.

No Longer in Labor Force +843,000 vs +326,000 (revised up) last month....this is really huge....
In the last 3 months 1.162 MILLION workers are gone...no longer counted.

U6 (those on UE long and short term plus those with part time jobs that want full time) is now 17.3% +0.1%

Over 1.1 million people are no longer counted in the BLS stat in the last 3 months alone because they have given up looking...thus they are no longer in the stats.

Dec 2008:
6.6 million people were unemployed 14 weeks or less(but still on benefits)
4.3 million people were unemployed 15 weeks or more (but still on benefits)
Total: 10.9 Million

Dec 2009:
6.2 million people were unemployed 14 weeks or less (but still on benefits)
8.5 million people were unemployed 15 weeks or more (but still on benefits)
Total: 14.7 Million (or a 74% increase over Dec 2008)
(from BLS Table A-9)

Actual unemployment is probably ~13% for the U-3 numbers and ~20.5% for the U-6 numbers....we are reaching depression era numbers.

This all suggests to me things are not only worse but will continue to stay bad. Not to be a doom and gloomer, but eventually something has to give. Either the government will have to print even more money (which causes inflation) or states will begin to default.

I worry to prevent default, many will begin to cut some crucial services such as fire and police. This leads one to reassess security and fire prevention protocol/plans. If ifr services are cut back do you need more fire extinguishers? A larger first aid kit? Should a AED be a part of your kit if you have someone in your house that could be a candidate for heart attack?

All things that should be considered.

Update
In my mentioning of defaults by states....a new article came out today about California and it may not pay some bills that come due in March. This is called a default in the real world, much like what happened in Dubai when they said they wanted to delay payments on bills.

Hard Freeze Warning

I know this isn't breaking news for anyone in North Florida, but 2 nights in a row make things really tough on plants and animals. I was trying to cheat and get a 3rd cycle of tomatoes from my plants...managed to get a few before the plant had had enough.

Be careful Friday into Saturday with the rain coming followed by a possibility of freezing temps. Could be areas of ice on roads especially bridges and shaded roads.

Stay warm out there!

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING LIGHT
WINDS AND NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS A RESULT...ANOTHER
HARD FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT. SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR UP TO 12 HOURS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE LOWER TO MID 20S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HARD FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND
OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION. YOUNG CHILDREN...THE ELDERLY... THE
HOMELESS AND OUTDOOR PETS ARE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO THE COLD.
TAKE MEASURES TO PROTECT THEM. BE PARTICULARLY CAREFUL WITH
PORTABLE HEATERS...THERE IS DANGER OF FIRE OR POISONOUS FUMES.
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN TO ENSURE EXPOSED WATER PIPES
HAVE ADEQUATE PROTECTION FROM THE COLD TEMPERATURES.

Catch-up.

Hey Florida Preppers!

I am back from my long (badly needed) vacation in the Caribbean. I have alot of catching up to do, as you can see by the new masthead as well as the rapid changes at the American Preppers website.

I hope everyone had a wonderful holiday season and will have a safe and prosperous New Year. Any suggestions or submissions you wish to make to the board or areas that need to be covered, let me know.

Tom H

CDC Notice about Phishing scam.

If you receive these e-mails do not respond.


Date: Thu 3 Dec 2009
Source: Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC) [edited]



The CDC has received reports of fraudulent emails (phishing)
referencing a "CDC sponsored State Vaccination Program for H1N1". The
messages request that users create a personal H1N1 (swine flu)
Vaccination Profile on the CDC.gov web site. An example of the
phishing email is reproduced below:

"You have received this e-mail because of the launching of State
Vaccination H1N1 Program.

You need to create your personal H1N1 (swine flu) vaccination profile
on the cdc.gov web-site. The Vaccination is not obligatory but every
person that has reached the age of 18 has to have his personal
Vaccination Profile on the cdc.gov site. This profile has to be
created both for the vaccinated people and the non-vaccinated ones.
This profile is used for the registering system of vaccinated and
non-vaccinated people. Create your personal H1N1 Vaccination Profile
using the link [deleted]."

Users who click on the embedded link in the above email are at risk of
having malicious code installed on their system. CDC reminds users to
take the following steps to reduce the risk of being a victim of a
phishing attack:

- Do not open or respond to unsolicited email messages.
- Do not click links embedded in emails from unknown senders.*[see below]
- Use caution when entering personal information online.
- Update anti-virus, spyware, firewall, and anti-spam software regularly.

Dengue Fever Outbreak in Key West

Recent outbreak in Key West is the first in 50 yrs.

Exerpt:

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — University of Florida mosquito researchers are watching with a wary eye as dengue virus returns to the state after more than 50 years.
By late last week, 20 cases of locally transmitted dengue had been confirmed in Key West. Monroe County officials have issued a health alert and launched an education campaign urging residents to eliminate water sources in and around their homes where mosquitoes can breed.
“We haven’t seen dengue in Florida in a long time, but this does give us evidence that we can have it again,” said Roxanne Connelly, an associate professor of medical entomology with UF’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences.
Dengue fever, also known as break-bone fever or bonecrusher disease, is a rarely fatal but widespread disease transmitted to humans via the bite of an infected mosquito. There are an estimated 100 million cases of dengue worldwide each year.